A new field survey done in late August and early September by Xinjiang's Academy of Agriculture Science has cast doubt on the 2007 cotton yield in the province. The survey found that cotton yields will likely decline from the record levels in 2006, with boll development in August and September having been below average and boll weight down from the previous year. Cotton yields on the larger farms have been hit the hardest and are forecast to possibly fall 30 percent below year-ago levels. The lowest cotton yields are expected to occur in the northern cotton belt, with overall province-wide yields forecast to drop 5 to 8 percent below 2006 levels.

Xinjiang Academy of Agriculture Science Crop Survey Highlights

September 2007

August through September crop development slow, with boll development below normal.
Large farm yields forecast to fall 30 percent from 2006/07 in the northern cotton belt.
Average cotton yields across entire province will drop 5 to 8 percent below 2006/07.
2007 crop input costs are up 2.5 to 3.8 percent from 2006.
The academy survey found several factors behind the reduction in cotton yields. First, it appears that the reduced irrigation supplies had a larger impact than earlier expected. In those fields using drip irrigation, an average of only 8 to 10 applications occurred this season, which is below the normal average of 10 to 12. The yield reduction on the larger farms was linked to their receipt of only 50 percent of the water they needed. Power shortages also contributed to problems for the users of drip irrigation. This year's lower water supplies were exacerbated by this year's expansion in cotton acreage.

Another problem that emerged in the survey was that the southern cotton belt experienced excessive winds throughout the season. In the Bazhou area, cotton fields lost leaves, buds and bolls from the high winds that have reduced yields. In the northern cotton belt, prolonged periods of low temperatures early in the season appeared to have triggered a wilt problem that impacted yields. Finally, the survey revealed that there were issues with boll weevils and spider mites in some cotton fields.

Thus, it appears that doubt has been shed on Xinjiang's ability to push output through the 3.0 million-ton level that we once thought possible. The Xinjiang Agriculture Department has indicated that 2007 cotton acreage increased 122,000 hectares.